Mongolian dung beetles under threat: Predicting potential loss in genetic diversity and range shifts under climate change

Dung beetles play a crucial role in ecosystems as decomposers. Several studies have investigated the potential impact of climate change on this group, but research is still lacking in some regions, such as Mongolia. In this study, we investigate the phylogeography and current distribution of three dung beetles species - Colobopterus erraticus (L.), Cheironitis eumenes (Motschulsky), and Gymnopleurus mopsus (Pallas) - to predict their future genetic diversity and distribution under climate change. Mitochondrial COI sequences were analyzed to estimate the phylogeographic history. Maximum entropy models were performed to estimate the current distribution and future range shifts of the target species. All three species were predicted to undergo significant distribution shifts and haplotype loss in climate change scenarios. Of these, C. eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity and stable population size without genetic structure, was likely to be most vulnerable to climate change. While a distinct loss in haplotypes was expected for the steppe species C. erraticus and the widespread species G. mopsus, it is predicted that their genetic diversity will persist due to the high frequency of unique haplotypes and low divergence across both geographic configurations and lineages. We revealed that the effects of climate change on future genetic diversity and distribution vary according to the phylogeographic history and current climatic niche of each dung beetle species.