Gene drives for invasive wasp control: Extinction is unlikely with suppression dependent on dispersal and growth rates

Gene drives could potentially revolutionize large-scale pest control by spreading harmful genetic changes throughout a population. We used simulation models to evaluate the effectiveness of a gene drive strategy targeting invasive social wasps (Vespula vulgaris) in a realistic New Zealand environment. Eradication was only possible in unrealistic release scenarios. Suppression was a much more likely outcome in our simulations. After 25 years, populations could be suppressed to less than 95% of their initial levels. The populations exhibited cyclic fluctuations across space, resulting in local extinctions in some areas and high wasp abundance in others. Higher intrinsic growth rates, combined with local dispersal, led to larger average populations and increased variation in pest population suppression and landscape occupancy. We have also identified potential gene targets that could limit gene drive effects to only the subset of invasive wasp genotypes found in New Zealand. We show that different spermatogenesis genes have different levels of variation between introduced and native ranges, enabling a potential ‘precision drive’ that could target the reduced genetic diversity and genotypes within the invaded range. While gene drives could be of significant conservation benefit, the persistence of genetically modified pests raises ethical concerns and challenges the practicality of using gene drives for pest control.