Modeling potential emerald ash borer distribution within the Oregon ash range under climate change

The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) has killed tens of millions of ash trees since its initial detection in North America just 20 years ago. Ecological impacts of widespread and rapid ash mortality are expected to have cascading effects, which may be most ecologically devastating in riparian zones. Despite consistent efforts to mitigate spread, EAB was detected outside of the Portland, OR in June of 2022, representing the first known EAB presence on the West Coast. EAB poses a major threat to the Pacific Northwest’s only native ash tree, Oregon ash (Fraxinus latifolia), as early research trials have found the ash species to be highly susceptible to EAB infestation. Oregon ash plays an important role in riparian zones and wetland systems west of the Cascade Range. Furthermore, increasing temperatures due to climate change are expected to shift the range of EAB and Oregon Ash. Therefore, this research uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the spread of EAB among the Oregon Ash species, both under current and future climate change conditions. This presentation will discuss the application of the MaxEnt model to invasive species monitoring, future invasive species range predictions under climate change conditions, and provide insights to the immediate- and long-term management of EAB.