Predicting the effects of climate change on the global distribution of pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum): A species distribution modelling approach

The invasion of non-native species is a significant global concern, with invasive insects causing damage to crops and natural ecosystems. Currently, pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris), are expanding their distribution and emerging as an economic threat. The pea aphid is a pest of numerous legume crops such as peas, lentils, and alfalfa and is of concern due to its rapid parthenogenetic reproduction that leads to large infestations, ability to produce winged or non-winged offspring, and vectoring of over 30 plant viruses. We investigated the global distribution of the pea aphid under current and future climate change scenarios by utilizing presence-only species distribution models (SDM), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The modelling results indicate the presence of suitable conditions relevant for pea aphid’s potential establishment in six out the seven continents, with significant risk of range expansion in western Canada and most of the United States. Countries at risk of pea aphid invasion and spread in Europe included the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain while, the Asian countries included China, Mongolia, and India. Lastly, the southern regions of Australia were also modelled to be at risk. We found human influence to be the most influential predictor in determining the distribution of pea aphids, supporting the fact that invasive species distributions are heavily impacted by human activity. The maps produced can be utilized to identify areas that are vulnerable to pea aphid’s potential establishment and assist in making informed decisions for proactive pest management.