(1st Place) Linking phenology and shipping routes to characterize establishment potential of insects arriving via international trade

The intercontinental movement of insects via wood packaging material poses a serious threat to forest health, despite widespread adoption of phytosanitary measures. Insects arriving via wood packaging material must survive transit, emerge from infested materials, and then locate a host to successfully establish. Host location and reproduction hinges on the interplay between the time of emergence and the spatial and temporal proximity to mates and suitable hosts: emergence during transit, for example, might result in mortality if the insect cannot survive until shipping containers arrive and are opened near suitable hosts. Despite these apparent barriers to establishment, several insects have invaded and continue to arrive via international trade. However, the changes in spatiotemporal patterns of invasion risk with different timings and locations of departure and arrival are poorly understood. We linked common shipping routes with phenological models for select, high risk scolytines and buprestids to characterize shifts in establishment risk with shipping route and time of year. Our intent is that findings from this work will assist biosecurity practitioners allocate resources to optimize inspection efforts.