A big data approach to characterizing impacts of warming climate on agricultural insects

Agroecological theory predicts that climate warming will reduce abundance and efficacy of insect natural enemies while promoting the growth of pest populations. However, some recent studies also demonstrate that, in the cases where data are available, climate warming displays mixed effects on pests and natural enemies. For most cropping systems, though, the effects of warming on biocontrol agents and their target pests remain unknown. To bridge this gap, we applied an ecoinformatics approach, whereby long-term data collected in agricultural systems for pest management were repurposed for scientific research. We collated several data streams across California and Spain gathered by independent pest control advisors, comprising over 150 insect species, a dozen crops, and over 140,000 field-years of detailed observations on insect populations. In our initial analyses that focus on a few paired insect pest-natural enemy systems, insects at different trophic levels display variable responses to year-to-year temperature and precipitation variation. In this talk, we will also describe how our study ultimately aims to build the foundation for a predictive, trait-based framework that informs integrated pest management as the climate warms.