The larger grain borer, Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) is a Central American native, wood-boring insect that has adapted to infest stored maize and cassava. In the late 1970s, the insect was accidentally introduced to Africa and has become an invasive and pernicious stored product pest. P. truncatus populations can disperse through and take refuge in forested habitats, thus, novel infestations can occur without human-mediated dispersal. Models of the pest’s current and future potential distribution and movement may greatly inform timely management programs. Therefore, we 1) projected the potential distribution of P. truncatus using native and invaded locations and 2) modeled potential changes with climate change in 2050 and 2070 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. We used the platform Wallace, which utilizes the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, to predict potential distribution using BioClim temperature and precipitation variables. Additionally, for North America, we separately incorporated topographical information to map potential changes in the native range. The model identified 7% of global landmass from 60°N to 60°S as currently highly suitable ( >75% likelihood), primarily within coastal regions and subtropical/tropical latitudes. In the future, highly suitable areas will increase (11% and 19% of landmass in 2070 under RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively) and new areas will become suitable, including the US grain-producing states. Specifically, in North America, increased monitoring for P. truncatus is warranted, as its interception along and predicted expansion from the southern US border represents a rising biosecurity threat emblematic of the Anthropocene.
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