D3037: (1st Place) Modeling long-term, stage-structured dynamics of Tribolium castaneum at food facilities with and without long-lasting insecticide netting

The red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), is a cosmopolitan and destructive external-infesting pest at many food facilities. The use of deltamethrin- and alpha-cypermethrin-incorporated long-lasting insecticide netting (LLIN) has shown incredible promise for the management of stored product insects. However, it is unknown how LLIN deployed within food facilities may affect the long-term population dynamics of T. castaneum compared to populations where no LLIN is present. Exposure to LLIN has been shown to affect mortality in the current generation and decrease progeny production in the subsequent generation. Thus, we modeled the long-term population dynamics of T. castaneum at food facilities over 15 generations by incorporating realistic estimates for mortality and progeny reduction after contact with LLIN compared to baseline growth by the species. We parameterized the model with estimates from the literature and used a four-stage structured population (eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults). The model was implemented using the package popbio in R. We found that deploying LLIN led to population extinction based on the realistic estimates of mortality and progeny reduction from prior work, whereas the baseline model exhibited exponential population growth. In addition, there were differences in the frequencies of each life stage under each scenario modeled. As a result, it appears deploying LLIN may contribute to the local extirpation of T. castaneum within as few as 15 generations. Our work contributes to a growing literature about the effectiveness of LLIN after harvest.